Paul Merson Gives His Spot-On Take on Leeds United vs Everton
Daniel Farke’s side arrive on Merseyside in buoyant mood after recording successive victories, and they will be keen to build on that momentum. Results elsewhere could further boost their confidence, with Leeds potentially able to open up an 11-point cushion above the relegation zone should West Ham fall to Sunderland on Saturday.
That said, the margin for error remains slim. Depending on how the weekend unfolds, United could instead find the gap to the bottom three reduced to just five points by kick-off, placing added importance on Monday’s encounter.
The fixture carries added significance for Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who is preparing to face Everton for the first time since departing the club in the summer. The striker will be eager to make his mark against familiar opposition and if Paul Merson’s latest forecast proves accurate, he may have the final word against his former side.
Offering his thoughts in a Sportskeeda prediction piece, Merson backed Leeds to claim the points despite praising Everton’s recent performance.
“This should be an entertaining contest,” he wrote. “Everton were excellent against Aston Villa, but Jack Grealish will be a big miss.
“Leeds were a little naïve in the 4–3 defeat to Newcastle when they threw too many bodies forward, but that experience will stand them in good stead. They’re improving all the time, and I like the look of them here.
“Everton haven’t won at home in their last four games and were heavily beaten by Brentford not too long ago. I’m backing Leeds.”
Merson went on to predict a 2–1 away victory for the Whites.
Leeds can also draw confidence from the reverse fixture earlier in the campaign, when a dramatic late goal from Lukas Nmecha secured all three points. Since that meeting, Farke’s side have made clear progress, strengthening belief that they can repeat the feat.
Everton, however, head into the match following an impressive 1–0 win over Aston Villa, a result that underlined their defensive resilience and physical edge. The Toffees have shown they can frustrate strong opposition, particularly at home.
Yet data supplied by DataMB offers an intriguing contrast. While Everton rank higher for physicality and defensive solidity, Leeds outperform them in possession-based metrics, attacking output, and counter-attacking threat areas that could prove decisive on the night.
Despite collecting valuable points on their travels in recent weeks, Leeds’ away record remains a concern. United have managed just one victory on the road all season, achieved against Wolves back in September.
If Leeds are to secure Premier League survival without late drama, improving their away form will be essential. Given their current run and growing confidence, taking all three points at the Hill Dickinson Stadium is a realistic target and Monday night provides an ideal opportunity to prove it.
